Índice de anomalia de chuva (IAC) e sua relação com os desastres naturais no leste da Amazônia

Abstract

The present work makes a study on the Rainfall Anomaly Indexes (IAC) and their relationship with natural disasters in the city of Marabá in southeastern Pará, Eastern Amazon. Monthly average rainfall data from 1973 to 2017 in the city of Marabá were used, from the Brazilian Institute of Meteorology (INMET), basic information data regarding the Management of Risks and Natural Disasters in the Marabá region. These data were obtained through the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and simulated precipitation data from the Coupled Climate Mode 3 climate model. Basic statistics were used, as well as the methodology of the IAC itself, which is an effective, direct methodology It's simple. In this way, it was possible to obtain the indices of negative (dry) and positive (full) anomalies. The result of the indices was divided into three categories or intensities: Weak (FRA), Moderate (MOD) and Strong (STR). For the climatology of the region, March was the wettest month, and the driest month was August. The largest volume of rain was in March and in April the volumes of rain began to decrease, reaching a lower value in August, and in September the precipitating volumes began to increase. The wettest quarters are December, January and February (DJF) and March, April and May (MAM). The driest quarter was June, July and August (JJA), and in September, October and November (SON) rainfall volumes begin to increase. The occurrences of EL Niño and La Niña were totally related to the results found by the IAC. For in all years of EL Niño or La Niña occurrence, the presence of the FOR category was observed. The results showed that the most relevant events for the negative anomalies are found in the FRA and MOD categories, and these two categories were practically equivalent. And these results were not related to the risk and disaster management information of the studied place. For the positive anomalies, the results showed that the most relevant events are in the MOD category, indicating that the Marabá region is characterized by a rainy environment, and this characterization was fully related to the events of risk and disaster management that occurred. in Maraba. It is worth mentioning that the future scenario found through the simulations proved to be an intensification of the current weather and climate patterns in the city of Marabá. And according to the news this year 2020, Marabá is already suffering from floods. In this way, the IAC is a great tool for climatological characterization and warning of possible risk areas. Keywords: Amazon, Pará, Marabá, precipitation, IAC.