A Precipitação climática na mesorregião metropolitana de Belém e suas implicações socioambientais

Abstract

Belém metropolitan mesoregion has the largest urban population-concentration of Pará and presents annually high levels of precipitation. In this scenario the occurrence of extreme events can foster social and environmental vulnerability, causing risks to human populations. Thus the present work aims to make a research of climate precipitation in the Belém metropolitan mesoregion considering its implications in the modulation of environmental vulnerability during the period 2000 to 2010. For this research will present the following approaches: I - Identification and analysis of main patterns spatiotemporal rainfall, with reference to the estimated monthly precipitation at points of 8/8 km grids for the period of Jan / 2000 to Dec / 2010 given by the technique of CPC morphing technique (CMORPH) and method factorial Principal Component Analysis (PCA). II - Analysis of environmental vulnerability to the Belém metropolitan mesoregion using General Vulnerability Index (GSI), based on data socioeconomic, epidemiological and climatic indicators during the decade from 2000 to 2010. The ACP has determined the existence of a pattern of precipitation in three main rainfall modes, which explain 89% of the total variance of the data. The first mode explains 78% of the data, showing the seasonal rainy and less rainy season, being directly influenced by the performance of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The second mode explains 6% of the data and is associated with mesoscale events and the influence of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). The third mode accounts for 5% of the data and elucidates the influence of local systems as lines of instability and breeze circulation. The IVG showed that the city of Belém has the highest value of IVG (0.61), assigning a high vulnerability, given from the high climate vulnerability index (1.00) and epidemiological (0.76). In return the municipality of Bujaru has a low vulnerability, with the value of the IVG (0.14) and is explained by the minimum value of CVI (0.00) and low levels of IVE (0.03) and IVSE (0.38). It is hoped that this study can support the current management of public policies for municipalities, and encourage the study of environmental vulnerability in the Amazon region, view from the interdisciplinary.